Tom Healy, Director NERI

2016 will be dominated, among other things, by the British question.  The word ‘Brexit’ has been added to the English language.  As everyone knows by now it would mean the UK (and that includes Northern Ireland) leaving the European Union following a referendum later this year.  Historically, the island of Britain has always displayed a singular approach in international affairs possibly well captured in the sentiment prevalent during the English reformation: “The Bishop of Rome hath no jurisdiction in this Realm of England." (no. 37 of the 39 Articles of Religion).  History also arranged that Britain’s neighbouring island to the west has had a complicated relationship with Britain as well as, in the distant past, Britain’s enemies and allies on the European mainland.

That the world has changed dramatically in the course of the last 40 years is evidenced by the fact that:

• A key argument in favour of the Republic of Ireland joining the European Economic Community in the 1972 referendum was that ‘we have no choice if Britain goes in’. In other words, given the very high levels of imports and exports with the UK the option of negotiating some alternative trade agreement with the EEC was seen a non-runner.
• Northern Ireland narrowly voted, in a low turnout, in favour of the UK leaving the EEC in the UK referendum of 1975 (it should be noted that the UK did not agree to letting Northern Ireland disaffiliate from the EEC!).
• The ‘EEC’ has gone from 12 members in 1973 to 29 of which almost one half were under some dictatorship including Portugal, Spain and Greece which were under fascist dictatorship in 1972.
• Living standards in both parts of Ireland have risen dramatically in the course of 4 decades and along with this access to education and life expectancy (only a minority completed secondary education in the Republic as recently as the late 1960s). Travel to the ‘continent’ (especially by airplane) was an exotic luxury for the better off in the 1960s.
• The ‘common market’, as the EEC was sometimes called, has evolved from a free trade area to a much closer political, economic and monetary union.